Operation Epic Folly

War criminals are in charge.

I’ll begin with a statement of fact: the United States war on Iran is a gross violation of international law, the Charter of the United Nations, and the Constitution.

There are so many things wrong about this war that I doubt I can present a complete and coherent post about it; but I’ll try my best. Let’s divide this into sections.

IRAN. The Iranian radical theocracy has acted for decades as a terrorist organization, threatening and attacking it’s neighbors - especially Israel - and killing it’s own people. It has, in many ways, dictated the geopolitics of the region, and bedeviled all efforts to reign it in. It’s proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthies are violent, murderous actors on the world stage. Iran is a large country with about 90 million people and a large military establishment loyal to the Islamic regime. Over many years, Iran has danced with the possibility of having nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles - major threats to the region and the world.

It is unclear if and how close Iran was, prior to the present war, to having nuclear weapon capability. In 2015 the Obama administration negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran resulting in a reduction in their production of enriched uranium. In 2018 the Trump administration backed out of the JCPOA, and Iran once again started uranium enrichment. As seen in the graphic below, Iranian production of 20% enriched uranium 235 declined almost to zero under the agreement, but ramped up again after Trump pulled out of the agreement. Weapon-grade U235 is typically at 90% enrichment, which can quickly be achieved with 60% material; however, smaller weapons can be configured with 60% material. Note in the diagram that enrichment from 20 to 60% began in 2022.

Trump claims that Iran was two weeks away from having a nuclear weapon. Most experts disagree with that statement.

As it stands today, Israel and the United States continue to bomb Iran, Iran continues to attack Israel, as well as other neighbors and U.S. facilities in those countries, with drones and missiles, and has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to critical shipping. Experts on Iran explain that the Iranian regime strategy is to survive the Israel/USA aerial warfare campaign, and then go from there. Survival to them is a win. In the meantime, Iran is exerting a great deal of economic hurt on the world.

As for regime change, one of the numerous reasons Trump stated was his war goal, it would certainly be welcomed by many Iranians. At this point, however, rising nationalism and resistance to foreign invaders (USA/Israel) are likely the dominant feelings in Iran.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. It is unclear why the USA (the Trump Regime) is at war with Iran. At least ten different reasons were given by the regime in the first three days of the war. (Note: it is important to establish that this is war, and not an excursion or action or other term. Trump has referred to it as a war numerous times.) What is clear is that there was no apparent reason for the USA to start a war with Iran. Absent such justification, the war violates international law and the UN charter. It also violates the U.S. Constitution, which gives Congress alone the authority to declare war.

The threads leading to this war are numerous. During his first term, Trump pulled the U.S. out of the nuclear agreement with Iran and others. It was not a perfect agreement; however, as shown above, it did significantly reduce Iran’s enrichment of uranium. By pulling out of the agreement, the U.S. gave Iran a reason to increase uranium enrichment.

Another thread is diplomacy. There were talks ongoing between the United States and Iran prior to Trumps decision to start bombing. Some reports are that the Iranians were slowly moving in the right direction in these talks, but apparently not fast enough for impatient people. The two negotiators for the U.S. were Trumps son-in-law Jared Kushner, and his good buddy Steve Witkoff, both very wealthy New Yorkers with backgrounds in real estate development. Neither is an expert on nuclear weapon development or experienced diplomats, and they did not have experts and experienced people with them. It’s unclear what this dynamic duo reported to Trump, but he decided to bomb Iran before the negotiations were completed. (It has since been reported that Kushner was, at the same time he was negotiating with the parties in the Middle East, also asking his wealthy Arab contacts there to invest more billions of dollars in his private business. There are also reports that the Saudi Crown Prince, who has “invested” billions in Trump and Kushner ventures, was pressuring Trump to bomb Iran.)

As of this writing, there is no clear plan for carrying out the war on Iran, other than bomb the hell out of them, and there is no clear end point. Hundreds of Iranian citizens have been killed, buildings and infrastructure destroyed, political leaders assassinated, and, of course, the Iranian military decimated. Even so, Iranian drones and missiles continue to hit American bases and targets in neighboring Arab states.

Probably most importantly, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, causing a global economic crisis. Trump has tried numerous things to get shipping going again: he told oil tanker pilots to just go for it and not be chickens; he asked European allies, China and others to send naval ships to open the shipping lanes again (they all have declined the ask). Secretary of ”War” Hegseth has declared that the Strait of Hormuz is open for shipping:”The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping.” Such words of encouragement!

In spite of assuring everyone that the shipping situation is being handled, and “nothing to worry about,” the Trump regime has done some weird and puzzling things, such as dropping sanctions on Russian oil for almost a month. This is, of course, a major win for Trumps best buddy Vladimir Putin, who will rake in millions/billions of dollars to boost his sinking economy and, by the way, help him continue his war in the Ukraine. How that makes sense is a mystery.

By all appearances, this is the Gang Who Couldn’t Shoot Straight conducting a war that has significantly affected the world, and the world order. The U.S. is using up significant numbers of very expensive armaments, and has committed major parts of the military to the region, spending almost one billion dollars per day on the war.

And where is the U.S. Congress? Well, the Fascist Party of America, formerly the Republican Party, is among the missing in action. They are allowing Trump to run his illegal war.

ISRAEL. I always say about Israel that “it’s complicated.” That’s an understatement! Israel has been in an almost constant state of war since the founding in 1948. The stated goals of Israels enemies are to wipe it off the map, and kill all the Jews in the process, of course. As a result, Israel is a militaristic nation that has a huge military, lots of weapons (including nuclear), and a willingness to use them often. Under Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu military action is a regular and constant thing.

Throughout the arc of its history, Israel has resisted a solution to the issue of Palestinians wanting/needing an independent state. This one issue seems to be the fulcrum upon which politics in the region teeters. Because the issue has not been resolved, Israel has maintained an iron fist grip on Palestinians in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, fueling resistance and deep, generational resentment.

The brutal, barbaric massacre and kidnapping of Israelis by Hamas in 2023 initiated a brutal war in Gaza that has to date killed more than 70,000 Gazans, including fighters and civilians, and destroyed 70-80% of the structures in the Gaza strip. Israeli fatalities number around 1,200, including military. Israelis have spent a lot of time in safe rooms and bomb shelters since the start of that war, and traumas run deep.

Netanyahu has operated under a strategy of “mowing the grass” for many years; regular strikes against Hamas to keep them weakened. At the same time, Bibi for years facilitated the transfer of billions of dollars in cash from Qatar to Hamas in order to keep Hamas viable as an alternative to the Palestinian Authority. This has been a dangerous game. Last year, Israel and Iran and its proxies got into a shooting match, and Israel destroyed a lot of Iranian nuclear and military targets, killed high-level Iranian leaders, and severely weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon. Trump jumped in with “bunker buster” munitions and hit three Iranian nuclear sites. Netanyahu declared that Israel had eliminated two existential threats: Iran’s nuclear weapon development and ballistic missile capabilities. Trump also crowed that the U.S. had “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear weapon program.

And yet, a few weeks ago Israel attacked Iran based on a claim of an existential threat. Trump jumped in also, ginning up a major war in the Middle East. One of the many alternative reasons Trump gave for going to war was that Israel was going to attack Iran, and Iran would therefore probably attack American assets, so the U.S. needed to attack first out of self-protection. (1)

The present situation regarding Israel is this: Israel has committed, and continues a genocide in Gaza (2), is in the process of an ethnic cleansing in the West Bank (3), is bombing the hell out of Iran, including civilian targets (4), is assassinating Iranian leadership, has displaced at least 800,000 people in Lebanon and is bombing the hell out of Lebanon (5), and has started a ground invasion of Lebanon. The end point of all this is unknown. (6)

One has to wonder if, over time, diplomacy could have avoided this war. Would things be different today if Israeli and Palestinian leadership had honestly worked towards a solution for the displaced Palestinian people? Would a solution to this issue have cut the legs out from under the Iranian (and proxy) “justification” for the goal of “death to Israel?” Maybe not - but maybe yes.

I don’t see anything good coming from this present war. Maybe I’ll be surprised, and if so, I’ll acknowledge it. But history tells me that chances are things will go from bad to worse. In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of innocent people are suffering, on all sides.

Finally, as an American, I resent the actions of my country. Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth, the two evil clowns who are front and center for the war, seem gleeful about the death and destruction they are causing around the world - war in Iran, murdering boaters in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing soldiers and civilians while invading Venezuela to abduct the president of that country, blockading oil from reaching Cuba (and Trump stating yesterday that he is thinking of “taking” Cuba). The Trump regime operates on the principle that might makes right, and the US of A can do whatever the hell it wants to do wherever it wants to do it. None of this is OK to do in my name! We need regime change here, now.

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Notes:

(1) One of the most bone-headed statements a Trump bone-head cabinet member ever made (there have been many), was Marco Rubio declaring that the U.S. had to go to war with Iran because Israel was going to. In other words, the Jews made us do it! This stupid statement fans the growing flames of world-wide antisemitism. Thanks, Bonehead Rubio.

(2) I avoided the word genocide for a long time after October 7, 2023 because use of the word changes the discussion to an argument: is it or is it not genocide? Now, however, a United Nations Commission and a majority of scholars of genocide have concluded that Israel is guilty of it. So yes, I now agree that Israel is guilty of genocide.

(3) The settler movement in the West Bank has accelerated, including increased violence against Palestinians in their villages and homes. The Israeli police and military generally look the other way as this violence occurs. Palestinian villages are emptied, Palestinian agricultural lands are appropriated, and more Jewish settlements are being built. Many Palestinians have been wounded or murdered by armed settlers; the typical response from the Israeli authorities is always the same: “The circumstances of the incident are under review by the relevant authorities.”

(4) I have read numerous reports of apartment buildings, health clinics and other civilian structures being destroyed by Israeli and American missiles, with high numbers of civilian casualties. The U.S. and Israel claim that the weapons being used are “smart” weapons that use precise targeting. If this is true, then it must also be true that the targeting was deliberate. In a future post I will discuss the use of AI in weapon targeting, and how AI can conclude that a legitimate target could be in a specific location when, in fact, there is not. The U.S. bombing of a girls school in Iran, resulting in about 170 deaths, mostly school girls, is likely an example of AI using old or incorrect data.

(5) In the past year, since Israel knocked back the military capabilities of Hezbollah, there has been a tenuous cease fire between the two sides. Importantly, the Lebanese government had begun a military campaign to disarm Hezbollah and reduce its power and influence in the country. This was a major development towards a more free, democratic Lebanon. Unfortunately, Hezbollah decided to start launching missiles into Israel again to support Iran. It remains to be seen what happens during and after this war. In the meantime, at least 800,000 civilians in Lebanon have been displaced, and buildings are being destroyed.

(6) It is important to me that I again acknowledge the role of the Iranian regime and its proxies in this situation. These are bad actors that deserve to be driven out of power. My overriding concern is that the United States is becoming a rogue nation that ignores the laws and norms that have been in place since at least the end of World War II. Trump and his ilk are fascists who only seek power and wealth, nothing else matters to them.

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